{ "question": "Is AI replacing jobs?", "answer": "95.7% of US firms that used AI said it left their employment unchanged over the last six months, in the Census Business Trends and Outlook Survey AI supplement (17 Nov 2025 to 8 Feb 2026). Only 2.0% said AI cut staff. The strain shows in hiring: Stanford payroll data put young workers in AI-exposed jobs 19% behind peers (June 2026).", "period": "Nov 2025-Feb 2026", "key_numbers": [ { "value": "95.7%", "label": "AI-using US firms where AI did not change total employment", "note": "Census BTOS AI supplement, 17 Nov 2025 to 8 Feb 2026", "stat": "ai/ai-firms-no-employment-change" }, { "value": "2.0%", "label": "AI-using US firms where AI decreased total employment", "note": "Census BTOS AI supplement, 17 Nov 2025 to 8 Feb 2026", "stat": "ai/ai-firms-no-employment-change" }, { "value": "19%", "label": "Employment gap for US workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed jobs", "note": "Stanford Digital Economy Lab, ADP payroll data to June 2026", "stat": "ai/young-workers-ai-exposed-employment-gap" }, { "value": "39%", "label": "Survey respondents expecting AI to cut their organization's headcount next year", "note": "McKinsey State of AI, May-Jun 2026", "stat": "ai/mckinsey-expect-ai-headcount-decrease" }, { "value": "49%", "label": "Firms expecting no noticeable AI effect on staffing in the next 12 months", "note": "St. Louis Fed district survey, May 2026", "stat": "ai/firms-expect-no-ai-staffing-effect" }, { "value": "62%", "label": "Average wage premium in job ads that ask for AI skills", "note": "PwC Global AI Jobs Barometer, 2025 job ads", "stat": "ai/ai-skills-wage-premium" } ], "tables": [ { "id": "employment-effect", "title": "How AI affected total employment at US firms that used it (17 Nov 2025 to 8 Feb 2026)", "columns": [ "Effect of AI on total employment, last six months", "Share of AI-using firms" ], "rows": [ [ "No change", "95.7%" ], [ "Increased", "2.3%" ], [ "Decreased", "2.0%" ] ], "row_ids": [ "effect-no-change", "effect-increased", "effect-decreased" ], "note": "Census BTOS AI supplement, six biweekly panels pooled, released 18 Jun 2026. Base: firms that used AI in at least one business function, about 17.9% of US employer firms. Firms report their own view; this is not a payroll count.", "source": "census-btos" }, { "id": "by-sector", "title": "Effect of AI on total employment at AI-using US firms, by sector (17 Nov 2025 to 8 Feb 2026)", "columns": [ "Sector (NAICS)", "No change", "Decreased", "Increased" ], "rows": [ [ "Information", "91.7%", "3.8%", "4.5%" ], [ "Professional services", "94.3%", "2.4%", "3.3%" ], [ "Firms in several sectors", "94.8%", "2.6%", "2.6%" ], [ "Finance", "95.0%", "1.5%", "3.5%" ], [ "Transportation", "95.1%", "3.2%", "1.7%" ], [ "Wholesale", "95.2%", "2.1%", "2.8%" ], [ "Retail", "95.4%", "2.7%", "1.9%" ], [ "Administrative and support", "95.8%", "2.3%", "1.9%" ], [ "Health care", "96.1%", "1.6%", "2.2%" ], [ "Education", "96.2%", "1.7%", "2.0%" ], [ "Real estate", "96.5%", "1.3%", "2.2%" ], [ "Accommodation and food services", "96.7%", "2.3%", "1.0%" ], [ "Manufacturing", "97.1%", "1.1%", "1.7%" ], [ "Arts and entertainment", "97.1%", "0.9%", "2.0%" ], [ "Other services", "97.1%", "1.7%", "1.2%" ], [ "Construction", "97.4%", "1.1%", "1.5%" ], [ "All AI-using firms", "95.7%", "2.0%", "2.3%" ] ], "row_ids": [ "sector-information", "sector-professional", "sector-multi", "sector-finance", "sector-transportation", "sector-wholesale", "sector-retail", "sector-admin-support", "sector-health", "sector-education", "sector-real-estate", "sector-accommodation-food", "sector-manufacturing", "sector-arts", "sector-other-services", "sector-construction", "sector-all" ], "note": "Census AI supplement estimates file, question 6. Left out: agriculture, mining, utilities and management of companies, where Census suppresses the increased and decreased shares (their no-change shares are 96.7%, 97.7%, 97.8% and 92.1%).", "source": "census-btos" }, { "id": "how-firms-use-ai", "title": "What US firms that used AI did with it and for it, last six months (17 Nov 2025 to 8 Feb 2026)", "columns": [ "Measure (AI-using firms)", "Share" ], "rows": [ [ "Used AI to supplement or enhance a task an employee does", "43.7%" ], [ "Used AI to introduce a new task not done by an employee before", "10.6%" ], [ "Used AI to perform a task an employee used to do", "10.1%" ], [ "None of these", "51.5%" ], [ "Of firms where AI did employee tasks: a small number of tasks", "70.9%" ], [ "Of firms where AI did employee tasks: a large number of tasks", "7.1%" ], [ "Trained current staff to use AI", "15.0%" ], [ "Developed new workflows", "15.4%" ], [ "Hired staff trained in AI", "1.3%" ], [ "Made no changes to use AI", "64.3%" ] ], "row_ids": [ "use-supplement", "use-new-task", "use-replace-task", "use-none", "intensity-small", "intensity-large", "change-trained-staff", "change-new-workflows", "change-hired-ai-staff", "change-none" ], "note": "Census AI supplement estimates file, questions 3, 4 and 7. Firms could pick more than one answer. 22.0% of firms where AI did employee tasks said it was a moderate number of tasks.", "source": "census-btos" }, { "id": "expectations", "title": "What firms and managers expect AI to do to staffing over the next year", "columns": [ "Survey", "Expectation", "Share" ], "rows": [ [ "St. Louis Fed, Eighth District firms (May 2026)", "No noticeable effect on staffing in the next 12 months", "49%" ], [ "St. Louis Fed, Eighth District firms (May 2026)", "Skill shifts rather than headcount changes", "About 18%" ], [ "St. Louis Fed, Eighth District firms (May 2026)", "Slight reductions in staffing needs", "Nearly 20%" ], [ "McKinsey, global respondents (May-Jun 2026)", "AI will decrease the organization's headcount over the next year", "39%" ], [ "McKinsey, global respondents (May-Jun 2026)", "Little or no change in headcount", "43%" ], [ "McKinsey, global respondents (2025 survey)", "AI will decrease headcount over the next year", "32%" ] ], "row_ids": [ "exp-stl-no-effect", "exp-stl-skill-shifts", "exp-stl-slight-cuts", "exp-mck-decrease", "exp-mck-no-change", "exp-mck-decrease-2025" ], "note": "Expectations, not measured job changes. In McKinsey's 2026 survey only 14% of AI users reported an actual AI-related decline in headcount.", "source": "mckinsey" }, { "id": "young-workers", "title": "US workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed jobs, Stanford payroll study", "columns": [ "Measure", "Value", "When" ], "rows": [ [ "Employment gap against peers in less-exposed jobs (revised measure)", "19%", "Data to Jun 2026" ], [ "Same gap at the first data vintage (revised measure)", "15%", "Data to Jul 2025" ], [ "Relative decline in the original paper, with firm controls", "13%", "Aug 2025 paper" ], [ "Change in employment, two most exposed fifths of jobs, Nov 2022 to Jun 2026", "About -11%", "Data to Jun 2026" ], [ "Change in employment, three least exposed fifths of jobs, Nov 2022 to Jun 2026", "About +10%", "Data to Jun 2026" ] ], "row_ids": [ "young-gap-2026", "young-gap-2025", "young-gap-original", "young-level-exposed", "young-level-least-exposed" ], "note": "Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen, \"Canaries in the Coal Mine?\", revised 12 Aug 2026; original Aug 2025. ADP payroll data; descriptive, not causal. The authors find no comparable gap for experienced workers and say the change comes mainly through less hiring.", "source": "stanford-del" }, { "id": "by-survey", "title": "Other measures of AI and jobs, by source", "columns": [ "Source", "Who is counted", "Period", "Finding" ], "rows": [ [ "Census CES working paper CES-WP-26-25", "US employer firms, weighted by employment", "Nov 2025-Jan 2026", "32% of US employment is at firms that use AI, though only 18% of firms do" ], [ "PwC Global AI Jobs Barometer", "More than one billion job ads, 27 countries and territories", "2025", "62% average wage premium in ads asking for AI skills, up from 57% a year earlier" ] ], "row_ids": [ "survey-census-ces", "survey-pwc" ], "source": "census-ces" } ], "sources": [ { "name": "Business Trends and Outlook Survey", "publisher": "US Census Bureau", "type": "official", "url": "https://www.census.gov/" }, { "name": "Center for Economic Studies working papers", "publisher": "US Census Bureau", "type": "study", "url": "https://www.census.gov/" }, { "name": "Stanford Digital Economy Lab", "publisher": "Stanford University", "type": "study", "url": "https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/" }, { "name": "On the Economy blog", "publisher": "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis", "type": "survey", "url": "https://www.stlouisfed.org/" }, { "name": "The State of AI (McKinsey Global Survey)", "publisher": "McKinsey & Company", "type": "survey", "url": "https://www.mckinsey.com/" }, { "name": "PwC research (Global AI Jobs Barometer, AI agent survey)", "publisher": "PwC", "type": "research", "url": "https://www.pwc.com/" } ], "content_changed_on": "2026-10-31", "page_url": "https://digitaltreed.com/statistics/ai/ai-and-jobs", "csv_url": "https://digitaltreed.com/statistics/ai/ai-and-jobs.csv" }