19%About 1 in 5lower employment for US workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed jobs than if they had kept pace with peers in less-exposed jobs (June 2026)

Publisher

Stanford University, Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Source type

Study: Experiment or academic paper

What it measures

19% lower employment for US workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed jobs than if they had kept pace with peers in less-exposed jobs (June 2026)

Data period

Jun 2026 (ends 30 Jun 2026)

Published by the source

12 Aug 2026

Who is counted

ADP payroll records covering millions of US workers, through June 2026.

In the source's words

Employment among workers ages 22-25 in highly AI-exposed occupations now stands about 19% below where it would be if it had kept pace with employment among similarly aged workers in less-exposed occupations.

Checked at source

23 Oct 2026: Read on digitaleconomy.stanford.edu (12 Aug 2026 revision of "Canaries in the Coal Mine?", Brynjolfsson, Chandar, Chen) on 2026-10-23. The original (SIEPR page, Aug 2025) reported a 13% relative decline with firm controls; on the revised measure the gap was 15% at the July 2025 data vintage. ADP payroll data; descriptive, not causal.

Reuse

Quote with credit. Working paper using ADP payroll data; descriptive, not causal.

Next expected update

Monthly dashboard (Stanford University, monthly dashboard; paper revised irregularly)

Original page

digitaleconomy.stanford.edu: Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Data files

CSV · JSON (stable links)

• 12 Aug 2026Method change19% Revised paper: on its updated measure the gap was 15% at the July 2025 data vintage and 19% as of June 2026.
• 26 Aug 2025New data13% Original paper (Aug 2025, siepr.stanford.edu): "a 13 percent relative decline in employment even after controlling for firm-level shocks".

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